Best Bets of the Day – The 26th of December, 2011 Free Horse Racing Tips from Kempton & Wetherby
The classy Master Minded will get every inch of 3-miles in the King George and should go well.
Posting my Boxing day selections early just in case I don’t get back online later to update the site but I should be able to in the depths of the morning! No reasoning added yet but I’ll have that up tonight all going well.
Plenty of bets, 6 in total and hopefully they won’t all lose, or else there’ll be many pints consumed tomorrow evening! Cheers to all who look and best of luck if you play. I’ll post on Facebook/Twitter when I’ve added the reasoning.
Late night edit; Reasoning added.
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1:25 Kempton - Loch Ba - 2pts @ 9/1 (WillHill)
Loch Ba has plenty of work to do in the jumping department but he’s only a lightly-raced 5-year-old and should have more improvement to come. In three runs over fences to date, he has won once and finished second twice, the latest off a 5lb lower mark in which he jumped quite poorly but galloped on relentlessly to go down by a narrow margin. That was in a 5-runner contest at a track that probably doesn’t play to his strengths.
Whether Kempton will suit Loch Ba fully is debatable (won on chase debut over C&D but was very fortuitous; now 13lbs higher in a better race) but it will suit more than Sandown and the likely solid gallop in this decent sized field is going to be another help for Henrietta Knight’s charge. Knight also sees fit to apply first-time cheekpieces and if they have the desired effect, the improvement required to see him play a part could be found. 9/1 looks like a decent price about him in what is a wide-open contest and he’s worthy of small/medium stakes.
1:45 Wetherby - Knockara Beau - 2pts @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes, WillHill)
This looks to be a very competitive handicap but Knockara Beau is weighted to get involved in proceedings and can do exactly that if things pan out for him during the race. It looks very likely that he’ll get a solid gallop to run after on this testing ground and that should be right up his street. George Charlton’s 8-year-old hasn’t won over fences for a couple of years but he has contested some very good races in that time and hasn’t always got what he’s in need of. Last time out, over the extended 3m 1f at Cheltenham, this game animal ran a cracking race to finish second to a useful Nicky Henderson trained improver.
In the end, Knockara Beau was beaten a bit more than 3-lengths but that doesn’t tell the whole story, as he got badly outpaced before flying late on. The ground was probably too lively for him and that run suggests to me that he’s well-handicapped off a mark of 143 here on what is his ideal ground. The track should be no issue either and due to the highly-rated top-weight, Charlton’s stable star gets in off a very nice weight. Overall, 6/1 is a nice price about him and small/medium win stakes will suffice again.
2:00 Kempton - Silviniaco Conti - 3pts @ 7/2 (Bet365, Ladbrokes)
Opposing Grand Crus mightn’t look like a great idea after the race but I get the suspicion that he’ll prove to be better over shorter and could do with more cut in the ground. He’s obviously an exceptional talent but there’s enough there to suggest that he’s avoidable at the 5/4 mark and I’ll happily take him on with the Paul Nicholls trained Silviniaco Conti, a horse who looks much better value at current odds of 7/2. This very useful hurdler has taken to the chasing game very well and having ran a solid race when expected to be in need of it on his seasonal reappearance (was also going left-handed and he’s said to be better the other way around), he improved significantly to score so very easily in a Grade 2 novices’ race over 2m 5f at Wincanton.
On that occasion, Nicholls’ charge won by 25-lengths in a race where only one runner managed to finish in behind. It wasn’t a great race but the way in which he jumped was impressive, bar one mishap four out, and there’s bound to be a lot more to come. The step up in trip should suit and this track is likely to ideal too. Whether Silviniaco Conti will prove to have the class of the current favourite is up for debate but I think he could get the better of Pipe’s stable star today. Medium win stakes will do the job and hopefully he’ll run well.
2:35 Kempton - Binocular - 4pts @ 2/1 (Boyles, WillHill)
I’ve always thought that Binocular is quite an overrated animal but there’s no questioning that he’s an exceptionally talented performer and in truth, this race looks very winnable to say the least. Last time out, on what was his first outing of the season, he ran a perfectly good race when going down by just over 4-lengths to a race-fit Overturn (5/2 shot here) at the stiff Newcastle track. Given the fact that he was probably in need of the outing, I don’t think that Newcastle would be playing to his strengths and AP McCoy didn’t exactly give him a hard time as they scampered for home.
Binocular should come on a fair amount for having had the run and the return to this flat, speed orientated track should help to see him in a much better light assuming that it doesn’t turn into a wild sprint for home in the closing stages. Nicky Henderson’s charge also improved a lot for his first run last season and won this race easily on his second outing, something which I expect to happen here again. Connections have said that he’s working very well since Newcastle and I fail to see how he’s not a fair way shorter than 2/1.
Rock On Ruby is obviously a very good horse and won very impressively last time out but that was a handicap in which he was rated 145 and this is a completely different kettle of fish. I don’t think he has the speed for a race like this (I may be very wrong) and taking 9/4 about him doesn’t appeal to me at all. Overturn is bound to feel the effects of a tough season before too long and although my selection has work to do with him, I feel that form can be readily turned around at this track. 2/1 about Binocular landing the spoils here is just too big and warrants a borderline maximum bet. Hopefully he can give his best and if he does, he’ll win. Whether he will give his best is the problem!
3:10 Kempton - Master Minded - 3pts @ 7/1 (WillHill)
Plenty of good judges seem to question whether Master Minded will get this 3-mile trip but I’m completely on the other side of the fence and it’s a pointless discussion as far as I’m concerned. He runs as if he’ll get the trip without any problem at all nowadays and I wouldn’t be one bit surprised if he was still swinging away on the bridle as they come down to the last couple of flights. What happens after that against some proven, top-class stayers is beyond me but taking 7/1 about this exceptionally talented animal getting his head in-front over this trip is very appealing and I’m hopeful that he’ll run a great race.
Paul Nicholls has also targeted this race for Master Minded for quite some time and he has been trained specifically for it, so at least we know that he should be peaking right about now, which will be needed if he’s going on to win against this opposition. Connections have also said that they’re going to make a bit more use of him and that should be a help at this track – plus he’s also much better when allowed to race handily. His 3-length win over 2m 3f at Ascot last time out was encouraging and although his lead over Somersby was diminishing in the closing stages, he seemed to be idling in-front more than anything. I also think that his jumping wasn’t great on occasions and having got warm beforehand, it rates as a very good performance in my book.
Kauto Star is the big attraction to this race and if my bet isn’t successful, I’d only be too delighted to see him land the spoils. Whether he can replicate his excellent performance at Haydock has to be a worry and any value in his price has long gone. With him hovering around the 3/1 mark at the moment, I’d much prefer to take him on. Long Run is the other obvious threat to the field and he should come on for his seasonal reappearance but I just can’t take to the horse and I feel that he’s underpriced at 11/8 here. There’s no doubting his talent but is he a worthwhile bet in this company at that price? I wouldn’t think so. Master Minded is the value call here and 7/1 is surely too big for him. Barring disaster, he should have a say in the concluding stakes and medium win stakes will do the job.
3:40 Kempton - Like Minded - 2pts @ 8/1 (Bet365, Powers)
This is an ultra-competitive handicap hurdle but Like Minded is a very interesting contender for the Paul Nicholls stable and with a bit of luck, he could run a big race. This lightly-raced 7-year-old gelding has obviously had his problems and Nicholls said that he’s very hard to get fit, so how well he ran on his seasonal reappearance has to be a massive encouragement to connections. Despite not having lined out since February, this fellow ran a cracking race for a long time when contesting a useful staying handicap hurdle over the extended 3-mile trip at Newbury, a race which ended up being a thorough test of stamina.
In the end, Like Minded was beaten by 15-lengths but wasn’t given a hard time of it when his chance had gone and before that, he had travelled into the race going as well as any before his stamina gave way. By right, he’s likely to prove to be a better animal over lesser trips and the drop back to 2m 5f here is bound to be in his favour. The ground should pose no issues either and with race-fitness being improved significantly for having had a run, a big performance could be on the cards. Ruby Walsh hops back on board too and that has to be seen as a plus, as he’ll give the horse plenty of time to creep into contention in a race that should be run at a good clip. A mark of 129 looks exploitable despite the competitive nature of this race and 8/1 is a very attractive price about this animal winning. Small/medium win stakes again and hopefully he’ll run a good race.
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