Best Bets of the Day – The 17th of December, 2011 Free Horse Racing Tips from Ascot & Haydock
Desert Cry looks overpriced at 14/1 for today's Ladbroke Hurdle and should run a good race.
Oscar Close was very poor on Wednesday and that wasn’t a real surprise given what the market was saying beforehand. In the end, he was pulled up having jumped moderately towards the rear of the field and he was never involved.
There’s always a risk when backing a George Baker trained animal but I was certainly expecting a better showing than that. Regardless, he wouldn’t have beaten the gambled-on winner, so it doesn’t really matter either way.
Disappointing but he could be worth pursuing with for a while, as he should prove to be a nicely handicapped horse in time.
-3.00pts on the day.
Keeping things brief enough today. Plenty of bets to be had and not enough time in the day to ramble on about them. Cheers as always too all who look and fingers crossed that there’ll be a winner. Although it does look like a very tricky day and it could go either way, so I’d play with caution if you’re backing any.
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1:25 Ascot - Politeo - 2pts @ 5/1 (Boyles)
Politeo made an encouraging debut for Nick Williams when finishing second at this track nearly a month ago and with a bit of luck, he could go one better this time around. He’s only a 5-year-old and although not the biggest, he jumps as well as anything and was described as a “savage jumper” by his former trainer Paul Nolan. Whilst he’s said the be better on good ground, today’s conditions should inconvenience him at all (has won on soft ground twice, albeit in modest races) and he looks one of the likelier types in this contest given the ground conditions. Whether he’s overly well-treated off a mark of 128 is up for debate but he has only run on 6 occasions over fences, winning twice, and could have more in the locker yet.
At this track last time out, Politeo ran over 2m 3f on good ground and proved to be the only runner who could give the easy winner (who was nicely handicapped) any sort of race. His jumping was good in the main and he travelled like a nice horse before tiring in the closing stage, possibly not helped by the race turning into a sprint for home. With that being his first outing for four months, he could be expected to come on for it and the fact that he was sent off as an unfancied 16/1 shot probably suggests that he did better than expected. Today’s race is tougher but he steps back to 2m 1f on testing ground and this is something that I expect to suit. Nick Williams also has his string in fine order this season and if there’s further improvement to be found yet, I’m sure that he’ll be able to find it. 5/1 looks like a decent price and I feel the favourite is vulnerable, so small/medium stakes will be played. All going well, he should have some sort of say in proceedings.
2:10 Haydock - Attaglance - 2pts @ 8/1 (Boyles)
Attaglance comes here on the back of a very encouraging outing over C&D last month when carrying a low weight in quite a hot handicap. Malcolm Jefferson’s charge finished just over a couple of lengths behind the classy Donald McCain trained winner in the end and was never stronger than at the finish after hitting a vital flat spot when the tempo increased in the home straight. I get the impression that today’s very testing ground will be right up his street if he continues to be raced up with the pace and this looks to be an easier task than he faced last time out, despite the fact that it’s quite competitive too.
Being a 5-year-old, Attaglance is not overly exposed at all (especially at this sort of trip) and has taken quite a while to show his best. Originally, he was a very keen-going sort who threw away his chances by over-racing in the early stages of his races but he seems to be settling a lot better nowadays and should be suited to this relatively large field. Paddy Brennan taking the reins again is another plus, as he won with his only ride on board this fellow when they scooted in to win by 5-lengths over the stiff 2m 1f at Carlisle (won very easily). That was off a 9lb lower mark but the way in which this animal travels and jumps always gives hope that he has more in the tank when getting things to suit. He looks to have plenty in his favour here but it is a competitive heat and small/medium stakes will suffice. Yard form is a bit of a worry, as they’re not really firing on all cylinders but I’ll overlook that and hope for the best.
2:45 Haydock - Wymott - 3pts @ 7/2 (Boyles)
In all likelihood, this race should be all about Wymott if he gets around in one piece and, although many useful types line up in opposition, he could well prove to be a handicap blot racing off a mark of 144. It’s not remotely as simple as that and he has to do it on the track but Donald McCain’s 7-year-old chaser is obviously held in high regard, much higher than that of a 144-rated animal. He was expected to run a big race in the RSA Chase at the festival in March and McCain even said afterwards that he “put the cheekpieces on at Cheltenham purely because I didn’t want him to pull up in front – that’s how hopeful I was”. It didn’t work out for his charge though, as he came back injured after pulling up before they knuckled down at the business end.
Wymott made his return to action when tackling the Hennessy Gold Cup off a low weight a few weeks ago and he ran very encouragingly, finishing just over 6-lengths behind the winner in sixth place. The good ground that day was plenty lively enough for him and the return to a much softer surface is sure to be in this animals favour. There’s also a fair chance that he will come on for that outing, his first since the injury, and he should get a good gallop to run after, which will help him to no end. The McCain yard also seem to be in decent knick of late and have great results at this track, with 24% of their 112 runners in the past five years going on to win. I’m quite hopeful that they’ll add another win here with this high-class animal and medium win stakes will do the job at the price.
3:05 Ascot - Benbane Head - 2pts @ 13/2 (Powers)
It’s hard to know whether Benbane Head is after ground that’s overly testing, as he has plenty of fast ground form, but taking a chance on Martin Keighley’s charge handling conditions looks like a good idea at the moment (mightn’t after the race!). This talented 7-year-old has been on the go for a fair while now and today’s race is set to be his final start for a couple of months. I’m hopeful that he can sign off with a nice win before a well-deserved break as a mark of 136 is sure to be below the rating that he can eventually reach. His trainer says that he doesn’t want it too soft but he has some form on testing ground and it may not be too much of an issue.
Benbane Head comes here on the back of a 3-length second to Golan Way in a Listed contest at Sandown and although that looks like a decent result on paper, it’s made even better due to how Keighley’s charge jumped throughout the race. To be fair, he was atrocious at the majority of his fences and finishing so close to the winner just shows what sort of an engine he has, plus he looked likely to overhaul that horse when they were coming up to the final fence. Today, connections reach for a visor, which has reportedly sharpened him up at home and if it has the desired effect on track, a good run can be expected now that he’s back in handicap company off a lowly weight of 10st 1lb.
Benbane Head also has 9-lengths to turn around with The Minack (11/4 favourite here) from their run in the Listed Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton but the 10lb swing in the weights should help and better jumping would also make it more likely, as this fellow just wasn’t good over some of his fences on that occasion either. The ground has to be a worry but the yard are in cracking form, the horse is clearly in cracking form and he’s one that’s more than capable of getting involved off his current rating. They should also go a good clip here and the track will suit, so ground conditions seem to be the only worrying aspect. If he handles it and jumps well enough, he should get involved and 13/2 is a nice price about that happening. Small/medium win stakes for me again and hopefully he can show his best.
3:35 Ascot - Desert Cry - 3pts @ 14/1 (Bet365, Ladbrokes, Powers, VC)
Another Donald McCain trained selection here and this time it’s Desert Cry, an unexposed second-season hurdler who looks open to any amount of improvement. I’m actually quite surprised that he’s not a single-figure price on the back of what was an impressive seasonal reappearance at Haydock over this 2 mile trip. On that occasion, under the guidance of Jason Maguire, this 5-year-old was victorious off an 8lb lower mark on decent ground in a race run at a solid gallop. The final winning margin was just a neck but he hit the front plenty early enough and won more comfortably than the bare result suggests. The second horse looks like a progressive type who was also very well handicapped and they pulled well clear of the field, so it looks like good form despite not being the best quality of race.
Desert Cry was expected to need the run according to his masterful trainer and that makes the performance all the better, as he had a setback just a few weeks beforehand. He travelled like the best horse in the race (under top-weight) after he was settled, which took a little while, and won despite not being overly fluent at his hurdles, something which he will have to improve on here. I’d be hopeful that he was just a bit rusty on the back of his lay-off and although he takes a marked step up in grade to contest this Listed race, it should be run ideally for him and he looks like the type who will relish being held up in a big field when they go a nice clip – which seems likely here.
The ground should also suit Desert Cry to no end, as he ran out a most impressive 13-length victor in a novice hurdle at Sedgefield on heavy going when running in just his third race over hurdles. Timmy Murphy takes over in the saddle and if they’re going to employ exaggerated hold-up tactics in order to settle him, he looks just the man to do it. He also seems to be riding very well of late and should prove to be an ideal partner for this animal. Whilst he isn’t the most obvious winner in what is a very good race, 14/1 looks too good to turn down and medium win stakes will be played. It’s definitely a value call, as the horse could still be a lot better than he’s currently rated and he should also come on for having had that outing a month ago. Whether he’s good enough to win a race of this nature at this moment in time is questionable but I’m hopeful that he will put up a bold bid and he looks very underrated in the market.
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